It turns out that the AI upgrade “super cycle” is not happening on iPhone and Android
Shop E Store AI was supposed to usher in a supercycle of smartphone growth, not only for iPhone users but also for Android. But it turns out that’s not happening yet, at least based on global smartphone trends for 2024. Sales are on the rise, but not in the way you might expect.
There is no iPhone supercycle in sight, but in any case, smartphone shipments are recovering for a surprising reason.
This week, IDC (International Data Corporation) released its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2024.
Overall, total smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 6.2% after several years of decline.
- iPhone is only growing 0.4%, so there is no supercycle.
- Meanwhile, Android is growing by 7.6%
Why is there a positive trend? Is AI or foldable devices to blame?
Actually, that’s not the case.
GenAI continues to be a hot topic and a top priority for many vendors, but it has yet to significantly impact demand and drive early upgrades.
Foldable products similarly “continue to grab headlines despite low market volume,” IDC notes. And in the third quarter, “foldable devices decreased by 7.4%, even though most of the world’s prominent vendors launched new models.”
So what will be the main driver of smartphone success in 2024? “Low-end devices”
Android is critical to this year’s 6.2% growth, with fast 7.6% year-on-year growth, primarily in low-end devices, primarily in APeJC, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and China.
That’s correct. Major technological advances in generative AI and unique designs such as foldable devices are not behind the smartphone rebound in 2024.
Instead, it’s simply overdue upgrades and low-end devices providing a much-needed market boost.
Could that change in 2025? Of course. IDC said it still expects AI and foldables to lead to high-end growth in the coming years. But at least for now, there is still no sign of a major supercycle of AI upgrades.
What do you think about smartphone trends in 2024? Will there be an iPhone supercycle? Let us know in the comments.
